As representatives from Hamas and Israel meet in Qatar to discuss conditions for a ceasefire between the warring sides this week, they are in a different position from last time, but key differences remain.
Ahead of a meeting with his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump said on Sunday there was a “good chance” of a hostage deal with Hamas “during the week”.
Trump’s pressure on Israel could help the two sides come to a deal, but even in its severely weakened state Hamas is likely to push for demands on the future governance of Gaza that could kill a deal, experts say.
Thousands of Palestinian families have been forced to flee to the al-Mawasi area of the southern city of Khan Younis due to Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip. Civilians in the area are hoping for a possible ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the coming days in order to return to their cities. Source: Getty / Abed Rahim Khatib
Trump said last week Israel had agreed to the “necessary conditions” to finalise a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, and that Qatar and Egypt — both have helped broker ceasefire efforts — would deliver the final proposal. Hamas said it has responded in “a positive spirit” to the proposal but many significant hurdles will need to be cleared before the ceasefire could actually be implemented.
Here’s what we know about the current round of ceasefire talks being held in the Qatari capital Doha.
What’s different this time around?
Since then, Israel has taken control of between 60 to 70 per cent of the Gaza Strip through ground operations, establishing a new strip of control running from east to west, the Morag corridor, to broaden its control over Gaza’s south.
At this point, Hamas is incredibly weak strategically and compromised by the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation taking over aid distribution in Gaza, affiliate research associate at Monash University Dr Ran Porat told SBS News.
“Hamas has lost a lot of its control and now Hamas is having trouble overtaking the aid going into Gaza that was the main source of its income,” he said.
“Hamas is weaker than ever — they’re isolated, encircled. They have no friends in the world any more. Hezbollah is very weak in Lebanon and Iran is no longer able to support them.”
Porat also mentioned media reports of clans inside Gaza killing Hamas members, showing that it’s losing its grip on power over people in the Strip.
Any deal would take at least a week because of the complexities and logistics of holding separate conversations with Israel and Hamas, he said, but the Israelis may be more likely to sign a deal.
Dr Jessica Genauer, senior lecturer in international relations at Flinders University, told SBS News that Trump has clearly decided he wants to put the weight of US leverage behind trying to force an agreement between Israel and Hamas, following the ceasefire deal he pushed between Israel and Iran.
“The key factor that’s different [with these ceasefire talks] is that Trump, if he really wants to, does probably have the ability to orchestrate some type of ceasefire between Israel and Hamas,” she said.
“The question is, if it doesn’t address the core issues, will it actually be sustainable in the medium to long term?”
What’s blocking a ceasefire deal?
Netanyahu said on Sunday he was still committed to what he described as three missions: “The release and return of all the hostages, the living and the fallen; the destruction of Hamas’s capabilities — to kick it out of there, and to ensure that Gaza will no longer constitute a threat to Israel.”
Hamas is reportedly seeking an agreement on Israeli troops leaving Gaza entirely, something experts say Israel is unlikely to accept and has rejected before.
Another significant block in the negotiation process, Porat said, is Israel’s insistence that it controls what it calls “the perimeter” — a roughly 1.5km-wide buffer zone on the Gaza side of the Israel-Gaza border that Israeli forces have cleared. Hamas has zero presence there.
Protesters in Tel Aviv have been demanding a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of all hostages held by Hamas Source: Getty / Anadolu via Getty Images
Similarly, Hamas will likely want its leaders to be kept alive and allowed to leave Gaza once a ceasefire is declared, he said.
Genauer said it looks very unlikely that Israel will agree to rescind control of the crossings in and out of Gaza and the goods and people that move through there, which is in contradiction to Hamas’ demand it gives up security control of Gaza.
Similarly: “Israel no longer wants Hamas to exist as a political or governance entity, and Hamas is very unlikely to agree to their complete disbandment as an organisation,” Genauer said.
“I think it is very unlikely that we’re going to see a resolution, even if we see a more short-term cessation of hostilities agreed to.”
She said Hamas likely sees the hostages it holds in Gaza as the last leverage it has in negotiations, and could be unlikely to return the 49 hostages still being held in Gaza.
The Israeli military says 27 of these hostages are dead.
Since Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack, in which 1,219 people were killed and 251 hostages taken, Israel’s military offensive and occupation has killed at least 57,418 people in Gaza, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health. Mediators have brokered two temporary halts in the fighting.
During the temporary ceasefires, hostages were freed from Gaza in exchange for some of the thousands of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli custody.
Porat says this time a deal could be likely, because Netanyahu has been promised the support of the political opposition in Israel, which said it will support him if his coalition collapses over him brokering a deal with Hamas.
Genauer said Trump is likely to announce a ceasefire deal but it probably won’t deal with some long-term governance issues and a return to fighting is probable.
In 2021 the International Criminal Court opened a formal ongoing investigation into alleged Israeli war crimes in the Palestinian territories dating back to 2014.
It has included the latest Israeli and Palestinian attacks in Israel, Gaza and the West Bank.
In May 2024, the ICC Prosecutor filed applications for warrants of arrest for Hamas and Israeli leaders for war crimes and crimes against humanity, committed in Israel and the Gaza Strip from at least 7 October 2023. Since then, the three Hamas leaders cited by the ICC, have been killed in Israeli military operations, and arrest warrants remain in place for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli Defence Minister Joav Gallant.
