AFL 2026, The Run Home after Round 17

A dramatic weekend has turned the top-four race into a seven-team fight, with Geelong staring down a disastrous wildcard scenario, and setting up an unlikely MCG blockbuster.

This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture with seven rounds left and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out, ahead of the AFL’s first 10-team finals series. See our predicted final ladder below.

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How does The Run Home work?

We’re trying to predict who makes the top 10, but it’s more complicated than just running a ladder predictor.

The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those percentages to give each team a projected win total.

For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. But if it’s an almost certain blowout, it might be 90-10, so the favourite gets 0.9 projected wins. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.

It’s all about probability, and it’s more accurate than trying to simply tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round.

It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it’s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality). If you’re able to win a bunch of 50-50s, you’ll make these projections look silly, but that’s not something anyone can accurately predict anyway.

At least one team will end up much higher or lower than we’re predicting. But think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 1000 times.

PROJECTED FINALS BRACKET

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Fremantle vs Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium

First Elimination Final (5th hosts Lowest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Adelaide Crows vs TBD at Adelaide Oval

First Wildcard Final (7th hosts 10th): Melbourne vs Carlton at the MCG

Second Wildcard Final (8th hosts 9th): Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood at the MCG

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts Highest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Geelong vs TBD at the MCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn at the SCG

The wildcard finals are played the week after the home and away season ends, with the top six teams getting a bye.

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Fremantle (19 projected wins)

2. Sydney Swans (17.7)

3. Hawthorn (15.7)

4. Brisbane Lions (15.1)

5. Adelaide Crows (14.3)

6. Geelong (14.15)

7. Melbourne (14.1)

8. Western Bulldogs (12.8)

9. Collingwood (11.55)

10. Carlton (11.3)

11. St Kilda (11)

12. GWS Giants (10.9)

13. Gold Coast Suns (9.95)

14. North Melbourne (9.9)

15. Port Adelaide (8.6)

16. West Coast Eagles (5.75)

17. Richmond (3.1)

18. Essendon (2.1)

Key Talking Points

– …what the hell was going on over the weekend?

– Fremantle and Sydney remain the clear favourites for the top two, especially with the Hawks dropping back, and this Thursday night’s 1 vs 2 blockbuster may decide the minor premiership (or at least ensure it comes down to percentage);

– Welcome to the top-four race, Melbourne. The Demons’ big-but-should’ve-been-bigger upset over Hawthorn catapults them into the fight and means Adelaide and Geelong now have to seriously worry about missing the top six altogether, and playing in a wildcard final;

– Brisbane is now a warm favourite for the last top four spot over the Crows, Cats and Demons, and can definitely aim for third, with a game against Hawthorn still to come. The Hawks, with a pretty cruisy draw outside of that trip to the Gabba, should still get the double chance;

– The Bulldogs are basically in no man’s land in 8th, equidistant from the top-six race and the wildcard scramble, though if they drop one or two of their winnable games over the next month they could still be in strife due to their percentage;

– Welcome back to the top-10 race, GWS. A brilliant upset over Fremantle keeps them right in touch with Collingwood, Carlton and St Kilda in what looks like a four-team race for the last two finals spots;

– Gold Coast now has a real chance to go from early-season flag favourites to finishing in the bottom six, while North Melbourne missed a massive opportunity to sit 8th on the ladder by losing to the Power. Both sides are simply running out of time and winnable games… while Port Adelaide is technically in the race but surely doesn’t actually want to play finals?

Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order. All times AEST.

Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This somewhat advantages teams with a strong percentage themselves (because they can’t play themselves) and vice versa, and does not take into account the location of the game, but is a basic metric of how tough a fixture is.

1. FREMANTLE (14-2, 141.6%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Sydney at Optus Stadium, Thursday 8:10pm

Round 19: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1:15pm

Round 20: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm

Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm

Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm

Round 23: Adelaide Crows at Optus Stadium, details TBC

Round 24: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest

Games like Saturday’s are why 14-game winning streaks are so incredible – random stuff just happens sometimes, like a really good team being beaten by an average one. Thankfully for the Dockers, the Hawks also lost, meaning they held onto their four-game lead over third. That makes it exceedingly unlikely they’ll have the Collingwood 2025-style drop-off and miss the top two, and if they beat Sydney this Thursday night, they should still finish on top. We’ve got a proper minor premiership race if they lose it, though.

Fox Footy’s projection: 19 wins, finishing 1st

2. SYDNEY SWANS (13-3, 136.9%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Thursday 8:10pm

Round 19: Adelaide Crows at the SCG, Friday 7:40pm

Round 20: GWS at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

Round 21: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm

Round 22: Port Adelaide at the SCG, Saturday 4:15pm

Round 23: Essendon at the MCG, details TBC

Round 24: North Melbourne at the SCG, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-hardest

An almost perfect weekend for the Swans, who would’ve loved seeing Melbourne upset Hawthorn, because it gives Dean Cox’s side a three-win advantage over third with seven weeks remaining. And their hefty percentage effectively makes it a four-win advantage over fourth. That’s valuable breathing room heading into a tricky three weeks, and now even if the Swans fall to the Dockers and one of the Crows or Giants (which is entirely realistic), they’ll still be inside the top two. They can also start looking up at Freo, instead of just looking down on the chasing pack; beat the Dockers and the minor premiership is within reach. Let’s put it this way: if the Swans and Dockers are level on wins heading into the final fortnight, we’d have Sydney favoured for 1st, because they’d have two big chances to build percentage…

Fox Footy’s projection: 17.7 wins, finishing 2nd

3. HAWTHORN (10-5-1, 110%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Carlton at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm

Round 19: Richmond at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm

Round 20: Essendon at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm

Round 21: North Melbourne at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 1:35pm

Round 22: Brisbane at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm

Round 23: Collingwood at the MCG, details TBC

Round 24: West Coast at Optus Stadium, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest

On the plus side, Geelong also lost (which Hawthorn fans love to see regardless of the ladder impact). But the sizeable gap between the Hawks and the chasing pack, in the race to finish third and avoid a likely qualifying final in Perth, just shrunk dramatically. Now the Hawks absolutely need to take advantage of their easy run home because not only can Brisbane pass them by beating them in Round 22, they could fall out of the top four altogether. It’s still unlikely, but much more likely than it was a week ago.

Fox Footy’s projection: 15.7 wins, finishing 3rd

4. BRISBANE LIONS (10-6, 111.7%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Essendon at the Gabba, Sunday 4:40pm

Round 19: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Saturday 8:10pm

Round 20: Port Adelaide at the Gabba, Sunday 1:10pm

Round 21: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm

Round 22: Hawthorn at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm

Round 23: Gold Coast at the Gabba, details TBC

Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-easiest

Look, they’re not gonna kick eight goals from their first eight inside 50s every week, but two bloody good wins over two genuine contenders in a row means the Lions are well and truly back. And with Hawthorn also losing, it was basically a perfect weekend. They’re the clear leaders in the race for fourth – we have them closer to catching the Hawks for third than to missing the double chance. The Hawks’ remaining draw is much easier but they have to travel north in Round 22; and we have Brisbane favoured in every remaining game. They still have to win them all, but they’re clearly good enough to. Second is probably out of reach, but if third means a qualifying final facing Sydney in Sydney instead of facing Fremantle in Perth, that’s an advantage well worth fighting for.

Fox Footy’s projection: 15.1 wins, finishing 4th

5. ADELAIDE CROWS (10-6, 111.4%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Gold Coast at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 8:10pm

Round 19: Sydney at the SCG, Friday 7:40pm

Round 20: Collingwood at Adelaide Oval, Thursday 7:30pm

Round 21: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm

Round 22: Richmond at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm

Round 23: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, details TBC

Round 24: GWS at Adelaide Oval, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-hardest

We would argue that despite winning, the weekend was still a net negative for Adelaide – they beat West Coast, but not entirely convincingly, and Melbourne’s win over Hawthorn has changed the dynamics of this part of the ladder dramatically. The Demons are in the fight for fourth now, though more importantly for Adelaide and Geelong, there’s a very real chance of falling back down to 7th now. That’s the wildcard death spot – where you’ll be warmly favoured to win through to an elimination final, but you’re so disadvantaged by having to play the wildcard game and take the risk in the first place. Realistically, when three teams are split by 0.2 projected wins (as Adelaide, Geelong and Melbourne are), there’s nothing between them and the ordering will change all the time. And with some very loseable games to come – they’re underdogs to Sydney and Fremantle away, plus the Magpies and Giants will be frisky visitors – the Crows remain at risk.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.3 wins, finishing 5th

6. MELBOURNE (10-6, 106.3%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Richmond at the MCG, Sunday 3:15pm

Round 19: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm

Round 20: Geelong at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

Round 21: Gold Coast at People First Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm

Round 22: Fremantle at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm

Round 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, details TBC

Round 24: Western Bulldogs at the MCG, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-easiest

OK, we’re sorry for ignoring you in the top four race, you didn’t have to take it out on Hawthorn like that! (Though if they HAD continued to demolish the Hawks, it would’ve been really helpful for their percentage. Giving up so much of that lead could matter at the end of the season, though they’ve got chances to build more over the next fortnight.) The Demons’ win was the most important of the weekend for the finals race, putting Adelaide and Geelong at genuine risk of dropping into 7th and a wildcard final, while giving Steven King’s side a sneaky shot at the double chance. It’s probably going to come down to Rounds 20-22 – win two out of three, and you’re probably avoiding the wildcard, especially if that means you’ve beaten the Cats. In fact we would argue Melbourne vs Geelong in a few weeks’ time is basically a mini-final; it’s going to be that important.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.1 wins, finishing 7th

7. GEELONG (9-7, 117.1%)

Remaining games

Round 18: GWS at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm

Round 19: St Kilda at GMHBA Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm

Round 20: Melbourne at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

Round 21: Collingwood at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm

Round 22: Essendon at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

Round 23: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, details TBC

Round 24: Richmond at GMHBA Stadium, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-easiest

From fourth all the way down to seventh, just because of one competitive loss to the reigning premiers… we did say the games against the Lions, Giants and Saints wouldn’t be simple. We completely understand why Chris Scott didn’t want to be dramatic about the Cats losing four of their past five games but it has done serious damage to their premiership chances – not because they’re playing really badly (though the defence was a total mess on Thursday night), but because of its ladder impact. Thanks to Melbourne’s win over Hawthorn, there is now a genuine chance the Cats end up in the wildcard spots, especially if they lose to the Demons in Round 20. The worst-case scenario would be facing a bogey side like Carlton in the 7th-10th game, and being knocked out immediately. We would still be surprised if the Cats missed the top six, because they should be good enough to win at least six of their remaining games; do that, and they should pass at least one of the Hawks, Lions, Crows or Demons. (Remember, the Cats are a win behind the Demons, yet we’re projecting the Cats to finish ahead – such is their advantage in win probability over the remaining games.) But they also should’ve been good enough to win most of their last five, and they didn’t.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.15 wins, finishing 6th

8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (9-7, 90.8%)

Remaining games

Round 18: West Coast at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1:10pm

Round 19: Gold Coast at People First Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm

Round 20: Richmond at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm

Round 21: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm

Round 22: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm

Round 23: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, details TBC

Round 24: Melbourne at the MCG, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-easiest

The Dogs are kinda in no man’s land here. They’re clearly not good enough to fight for the top six – their poor percentage means they’re effectively two games behind Melbourne – but they should be fine banking the three wins required to guarantee themselves a finals spot. That could come over the next three weeks, though the Suns up north will still be tricky, and we know the Bulldogs have had trouble in the past with ‘Random Late Season Game Against Bottom Four Team They Should Win Oh Jeez What Are They Doing’ disease (notable cases include Adelaide 2024, West Coast 2023 and Hawthorn 2021). For now, we’re not worried about the Dogs dropping out of the top 10, unless they lose to one of the Eagles or Tigers.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.8 wins, finishing 8th

9. COLLINGWOOD (8-7-1, 104.4%)

Remaining games

Round 18: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Friday 7:40pm

Round 19: Carlton at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm

Round 20: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Thursday 7:30pm

Round 21: Geelong at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm

Round 22: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4:10pm

Round 23: Hawthorn at the MCG, details TBC

Round 24: Brisbane at the MCG, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-easiest

Holding off the Suns was a massive step towards the Magpies playing finals footy – the loser was always going to be in big trouble, especially when you look at the Pies’ remaining fixture. Those four tough games left against Adelaide, Geelong, Hawthorn and Brisbane mean the stakes remain high against the Kangaroos and Blues over the next fortnight. Win both, and combined with the Round 22 game against West Coast, the Pies are likely to make the wildcard. Drop one and they’re at real risk.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.55 wins, finishing 9th

10. CARLTON (8-8, 96%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Hawthorn at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm

Round 19: Collingwood at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm

Round 20: Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm

Round 21: Brisbane at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm

Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm

Round 23: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, details TBC

Round 24: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-hardest

The train keeps on rolling, with the Blues not adding much to their projected win tally because they were heavily expected to beat Richmond – whereas Suns-Pies was a 50-50, giving Collingwood a big enough boost to pass them on our predicted ladder. With how tight the race for the final spots in the top 10 is, those projections will change weekly, especially with some enormous games coming up. Upsetting the Hawks would be brilliant for Carlton’s wildcard chances but getting wins over Collingwood, Gold Coast and St Kilda would be even better, given those teams are their direct ladder opponents. If the Blues win three of those four games, they will very likely play finals.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.3 wins, finishing 10th

11. NORTH MELBOURNE (8-8, 91.1%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Collingwood at Marvel Stadium, Friday 7:40pm

Round 19: Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm

Round 20: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm

Round 21: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 1:35pm

Round 22: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm

Round 23: Geelong at Marvel Stadium, details TBC

Round 24: Sydney at the SCG, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-hardest

There goes their one-win advantage on the chasing pack. The Kangaroos can certainly still play their way into a wildcard spot, with games left against like types Collingwood, St Kilda and the Bulldogs. But kicking two goals in the first half against a bottom-four team, and then fading late after giving themselves a chance at beating a club that kinda didn’t want to win anyway, wasn’t a great start to this decisive eight weeks. Because of all of their remaining games against contenders, their ceiling looks like 12 wins and with their percentage, they’re very unlikely to get in with 11. They really had to beat Port…

Fox Footy’s projection: 9.9 wins, finishing 14th

12. ST KILDA (7-9, 105.5%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:15pm

Round 19: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm

Round 20: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm

Round 21: Sydney at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm

Round 22: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm

Round 23: Richmond at the MCG, details TBC

Round 24: Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-easiest

The only thing the Saints can do is keep winning, and getting the job done against Essendon on Sunday keeps Ross Lyon’s men right in touch with the top 10. We suspect 12 wins is still the magic number to play finals, but with the Saints’ percentage they’re one of the more likely teams to sneak in with 11 (should it be possible) – especially if they’re beating the teams around them like North Melbourne, Carlton and Gold Coast. In fact win those three, plus the ones they absolutely should be winning against bottom four pair Port Adelaide and Richmond, and that’s a spot in September. We kinda like the Saints’ chances more than our numbers do… but that’s why we follow the numbers and not our gut.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11 wins, finishing 11th

13. GWS GIANTS (7-9, 100.8%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Geelong at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm

Round 19: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm

Round 20: Sydney at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

Round 21: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 6:35pm

Round 22: Gold Coast at Manuka Oval, Sunday 1:10pm

Round 23: West Coast at ENGIE Stadium, details TBC

Round 24: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-easiest

…can this team ever be normal? They follow up that demolition of Brisbane with some junk, and then after the very competitive defeat to Hawthorn, which came at a cost of even more injuries, they snap Fremantle’s 14-game winning streak?! And now they get a sliding Geelong side who they’ve beaten four times in a row. The degree of difficulty, IF the Giants play finals from here, will give them top marks from the judges – they’re trying to get in by beating the best teams rather than the average ones! Next week against the Cats feels like the swing game for their season – there are four easier games left on the fixture (Bombers, Power, Suns and Eagles) and two harder ones (Swans and Crows) – so if they beat the Cats, they’ve got a clear path to 12 wins and a likely finals berth. Massive game. You just can’t count these guys out.

Fox Footy’s projection: 10.9 wins, finishing 12th

14. GOLD COAST SUNS (7-9, 100.7%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 8:10pm

Round 19: Western Bulldogs at People First Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm

Round 20: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm

Round 21: Melbourne at People First Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm

Round 22: GWS at Manuka Oval, Sunday 1:10pm

Round 23: Brisbane at the Gabba, details TBC

Round 24: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-hardest

They’re not totally out of it, but the Suns are in massive strife now. With one of their more winnable remaining games gone, they’ve still got to find at least four wins (and probably five) on this fixture that includes games away to a pair of top-four contenders. Assuming they’re not beating the Crows or the Lions – stranger things have happened, but let’s be realistic – that means their margin for error has now evaporated.

Fox Footy’s projection: 9.95 wins, finishing 13th

15. PORT ADELAIDE (6-10, 102.5%)

Remaining games

Round 18: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:15pm

Round 19: Fremantle at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1:15pm

Round 20: Brisbane at the Gabba, Sunday 1:10pm

Round 21: GWS at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 6:35pm

Round 22: Sydney at the SCG, Saturday 4:15pm

Round 23: Melbourne at Adelaide Oval, details TBC

Round 24: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-hardest

They’d better be careful – if they keep winning games, they’re going to fall backwards into a finals race they don’t really want to be apart of (for Dougie Cochrane points reasons). Realistically to sneak into the wildcard, they’d have to upset two of the Dockers, Lions or Swans… the other games are all kinda winnable, though. This is a very odd team in a very odd situation; the list management team are probably gritting their teeth through every victory, though as long as they stay 15th it’s fine!

Fox Footy’s projection: 8.6 wins, finishing 15th

OUT OF CONTENTION

16. WEST COAST EAGLES (4-12, 71.5%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1:10pm

Round 19: Brisbane at Optus Stadium, Saturday 8:10pm

Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm

Round 21: Richmond at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm

Round 22: Collingwood at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4:10pm

Round 23: GWS at ENGIE Stadium, details TBC

Round 24: Hawthorn at Optus Stadium, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-hardest

Fox Footy’s projection: 5.75 wins, finishing 16th

17. RICHMOND (2-14, 63.3%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Melbourne at the MCG, Sunday 3:15pm

Round 19: Hawthorn at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm

Round 20: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm

Round 21: West Coast at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm

Round 22: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm

Round 23: St Kilda at the MCG, details TBC

Round 24: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-easiest

Fox Footy’s projection: 3.1 wins, finishing 17th

18. ESSENDON (1-15, 69%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Brisbane at the Gabba, Sunday 4:40pm

Round 19: GWS at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm

Round 20: Hawthorn at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm

Round 21: Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm

Round 22: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

Round 23: Sydney at the MCG, details TBC

Round 24: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: Hardest

Fox Footy’s projection: 2.1 wins, finishing 18th

No real changes down here; the Tigers still have that extra win over the Bombers, and the easiest single remaining game (West Coast at the MCG). For what it’s worth we don’t think either team will win one – the way we project things game-by-game just makes it look like that. (we’re not mad. please don’t put in the newspaper that we got mad and tipped Richmond or Essendon to win a game.)