Iowa caucus votes urged by Trump despite freezing temperatures

What’s more, the poll, which was taken between January 7 and 12 and has a 3.7 per cent margin of error, also had 61 per cent of respondents report that a potential conviction would not affect their support of Trump – and 19 per cent said a conviction would make it more likely they would support him.

The result was a particular blow for Florida Governor DeSantis, who fell behind despite visiting all 99 counties in Iowa trying to woo voters.

He has also ploughed most of his campaign funds into the state, hoping it would build momentum for the next round of primary races in New Hampshire and South Carolina – and, eventually, the party’s nomination to run for the White House.

But one year after Rupert Murdoch’s New York Post ran a front-page headline branding DeSantis “DeFuture” of the Republican Party, the former Trump ally-turned-rival is fighting to stay in the battle for the GOP nomination while momentum for Haley surges and the former president remains so dominant.

DeSantis was at a town-hall event with his wife Casey on Sunday when a US comedian known for pranks against right-wing figures interrupted the event to give him a “participation trophy”.

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“You’re probably not going to win the election, right, but we’re proud of you for trying,” said Davram Stiefler of the comedy duo The Good Liars.

“I don’t need participation trophies. Sorry, buddy,” DeSantis replied, as Casey urged security to intervene.

Stiefler continued, as security led him away: “He’s special, he’s unique and he’s our little snowflake.”

DeSantis played down the polls on Sunday, insisting that he liked being underestimated and that the result would be better than the data suggested.

“We’ll do well,” he said – a notable shift from last week, when he was still insisting he could win.

Haley also made her final pitch to voters, citing a Wall Street Journal poll released last month that showed her defeating Joe Biden by 17 points in a head-to-head contest.

“I think President Trump was the right president at the right time. I agree with a lot of his policies. But, rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him, and we can’t be a country in disarray in a world on fire and go through four more years of chaos,” she said. “We won’t survive it.”

The Iowa caucuses – the state’s version of a presidential primary contest – represent the first major test from voters for Republicans wanting to unseat Joe Biden.

While US primaries resemble general elections (with day-long voting at polling places and the option of absentee or postal ballots), caucuses occur at a specific time and look more like neighbourhood meetings.

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In Iowa – a predominantly white, rural state in America’s Midwest with high numbers of Evangelical Christians and farmers – they’re held in community rooms, churches and schools across about 1670 designated precincts.

But that means voters will have to brave record-low temperatures to cast their vote at 7pm (noon Tuesday AEDT), throwing a wild card into an almost certain victory for Trump.