Live updates: ASX opens flat as US jobs data dampens hopes of early rate cuts
The big economic data out this week that might move financial markets is the monthly inflation indicator for November from the ABS out on Wednesday.
The typical economist forecast via Bloomberg is for annual price increases to subside from 4.9% over the year to October down to 4.5% for the year to November.
However, CBA’s Stephen Wu says he expects a slightly weaker reading, in large part due to heavy discounting during a now key November sales period for retailers.
“We expect to see the impact of Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales events in the November CPI indicator,” he noted.
“Prices for goods, such as garments, household products, and audio, visual & computing equipment should see outright price declines owing to discounting activity.
“Offsetting this is the expected resumption of strong rents inflation.
“And we expect continued elevated market services inflation. However, this is not expected to be as strong as the Q3 23 Fair Work Commission award wage decision impacted figures.
“The ever volatile holiday travel component should see prices bounce, but the extent of this is a key uncertainty for our forecast. Meanwhile fuel prices eased in November, with further declines occurring in December.”
Mr Wu says CBA is expecting the monthly inflation gauge to fall even further last month, with annual price increases below 4% over the year to December.
