Trade news, rumours, ladder, premiership odds, coach contracts

It’s a new year and with it come no shortage of possibilities, be they good, bad or somewhere in between.

From an AFL standpoint, some clubs will surge, some will slide and there’ll be reasons and ramifications for all.

With 2024 officially underway – and in true New Year’s resolution fashion – foxfooty.com.au makes 24 big calls that may or may not prove prophetic this time next year.

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The Blues make the Grand Final

Why not Carlton? The way they finished the season was emblematic of a side that had clicked into place after being mired in mediocrity for so long. That six-match losing streak is far in the rear view mirror, but it prompted soul searching that seems to have resulted in a cohesive, fearsome unit. There’s still room for improvement in 2024, mainly with Harry McKay’s goal kicking woes and Charlie Curnow’s finals output, so there is plenty of reason to hope an even better outcome comes from 2024. Getting back to a prelim may not be the biggest shock, so in bold predictions fashion we’re tipping them to go at least one further.

And Michael Voss wins the Coach of the Year award

Few clubs get as trigger happy as Carlton was in years gone by, so Voss was well and truly on the ropes when the Blues were under siege on their six-match losing streak in 2023. The recovery was incredible and, should the Blues go even further in 2024, the ultimate credit has to go to Voss for not only recovering from that hole but for also being the one to finally get the club performing after years of underachieving.

Brodie Grundy returns to All-Australian form

Maybe this isn’t too bold, but Brodie Grundy returning to the role of number one ruckman seems like it is long overdue and Sydney should benefit hugely from his output as a result. Grundy showed when Max Gawn was injured this year that he could still perform at a very high level, being the second-highest rated ruckman during that period, behind only Tim English. The Swans are desperate for a standout ruck option after the retirement of Tom Hickey and Grundy fits the bill perfectly. He should flourish in 2024 and return to his All-Australian form of old.

The Suns break into the top eight

The time for waiting is over with Damien Hardwick at the helm. The list is primed and the time to seal an inaugural finals campaign is now. A fresh haul of Academy prospects is the cherry on top of Hardwick’s arrival and there is more than enough talent throughout the side to make a genuine push for September action. Getting the best out of Ben King will be important, but Hardwick knows how to win flags and he should have his new side firing when 2024 comes around.

And three teams will drop out

Because that’s the average. It’s two every year since the top eight began, and the average is around 2.8 per season. Those sides will be…

The Saints are one of them

Ross Lyon probably got as much as he could out of the Saints in his first year at the helm, but those outside the top eight are nipping at their heels. Given the focus on bringing in more talent via the draft and allowing younger players to keep developing, there may be a slight dip in 2024, which would be enough to tip them out of the finals as they build once again towards a fresh premiership push.

But Max King returns to top form

Max King was winged for large parts of the 2023 season, but Ross Lyon says the key forward is flying at the moment and will be ready to hit the ground running in 2024. Also a positive is the return of Tim Membrey, who looks ready to come back into the senior side and provide King with some cover. That coupled with natural development from King should be enough to have him back to his best and one of the best forwards in the competition. It’s the other areas of the ground that end up letting down the Saints.

The Power also drop out

It’s a bold call, but that’s the point, right? There’s always a top four slider that perplexes the footy world and the Power look the most likely to do that out of Collingwood, Brisbane and Melbourne, even though the Dees have had no shortage of drama this off season. The main question mark is around their personnel; mainly, whether their recruits can perform at a high enough level consistently enough to change the Power’s fortunes. The jury is still out.

And the Josh Carr handover is made official

Josh Carr’s decision to stay at Port Adelaide despite significant rival interest suggests there is reason to invest in the future at the club. If the Power drop out of the finals entirely after a top four finish and a host of moves at the trade table, time may finally run out for Ken Hinkley. It could be done in a tasteful way, with the final year of Hinkley’s current deal, 2025, to be used as a handover season. There would be significant interest in Hinkley’s services, however, so whether he stays for that final year when longer-term security is on offer is one to watch.

The Crows take their spot

As teams drop out of the top four, so too do teams surge in, with one side often making a habit of charging from outside the top eight to the top four the following year. Adelaide is the clear favourite of the 2023 crop and really shouldn’t have finished in the bottom 10 given the goal umpire fiasco that turned the season on its head. They’re poised to improve significantly in 2024 and it won’t take much to tip them into the top eight and have a crack at the double chance.

And Jordan Dawson finishes in the top three of the Brownlow Medal count

If the Crows make the finals (and we’re tipping they will), Jordan Dawson should be polling more than the 20 votes he managed in 2023. He has been a revelation as captain and is in career-best form. Should the Crows get into September, Dawson will be a large part of why and should be given due kudos by the umps. If he was off the radar before, Dawson is no longer.

Dustin Martin finishes in the top five

It’s a different, more forward-heavy role for Dustin Martin, but he is playing it with aplomb and his 2023 numbers are quite remarkable. There’s already talk of Martin setting new records this pre-season, in which he’ll play his 300th game and further enshrine himself as one of the game’s greatest players. We know he polls votes and Dusty should be back with a vengeance in 2024.

Then moves to the Gold Coast

First of all, his move to the Suns becomes exponentially easier at the end of 2024 given he’ll be an unrestricted free agent and no longer on a deal in excess of $1 million. He’s also far more likely to add another premiership to his trophy cabinet at the building Suns than he is at a Richmond that’s in transition. That and reuniting with Damien Hardwick means a much-touted move to the Suns may finally, finally happen.

The Dogs come in

It’s a defining year for the Dogs, with so much to play for. Luke Beveridge will be desperate for a rebound and so too will the supporter base, who watched an incredibly talented list underperform and miss the finals entirely. There has to be a change this year, particularly with some big names out of contract and wanting to know if they’re a chance of a winning a flag at their current club.

But the Cats miss out again

Injuries were nasty for them in 2023 and they never really got their best team out on the park properly, but there’s definitely the feeling the Cats are receding from premiership contention after finally scaling the mountain with their current list.

The Hawks just miss out

In the third year of his time as Hawthorn coach, expect Sam Mitchell to get his side a fair way up the ladder as they add more defensive integrity to their game. Mitchell has been teaching his side to attack, but they have been in desperate need of more defensive stability. They missed out on Ben McKay, but Mitchell has shown enough to suggest that he’ll have the side improving in the back half of the ground. Doing that will go some way towards improving their ladder position and given how tight the competition is it may get them close but not close enough to the top eight.

And Jack Ginnivan thrives

It was a messy exit from the Pies, but Hawthorn seems the perfect fit for a player who is honing his skills and yet to reach his full potential. He joins a team in much the same demographic and one that needs a replacement for Tyler Brockman in the forward half. He should slot straight in and have no problem finding himself in the senior side. Something near the 40-goal mark looms large for the small forward.

Fremantle remains stranded outside the top eight

There’s natural improvement in other teams that finished outside the top eight, but Fremantle just seems stuck without genuine forward firepower. Luke Jackson was very good in his debut year as a Docker but might not be the answer in the short term. If Nat Fyfe can get healthy that would be a big benefit, but a lot has to go right for the Dockers to be back among the top eight come September.

And Justin Longmuir goes

It’s never easy entering the final year of your current contract but that’s what Longmuir will be doing at this stage when the 2024 season gets underway. Much will depend on the performance of the side, but if the Dockers languish outside the top eight again it doesn’t bode well for Longmuir.

Finn Callaghan jumps into the All-Australian side

There’s a lot to be excited about if you’re a Giants supporter and Finn Callaghan is near the top of the list. As long as injury doesn’t derail him, Callaghan looks primed for a big season in a side that is now well and truly back on the radar after a wayward 2022 campaign.

And Jamarra Ugle-Hagan does too

It was a breakout year for the Western Bulldogs forward and another pre-season should ensure he is even better next season. He’ll turn 22 next year and is still in the infancy of his AFL career, but there is so much to like about the former number one draft pick. He should exceed his 35-goal tally of 2023 and launch into a new stratosphere next season.

With one club offering him a 10-year contract

We’ve seen the big contracts come thick and fast this year, with Ugle-Hagan’s teammate Aaron Naughton signing an eight-year extension recently. After the 2023 season, Ugle-Hagan looks to be one of the most tantalising prospects in the competition at just 21 years of age. If he performs to a high level again in 2024, he will be as valuable a prospect as any. There were comparisons with Lance Franklin in Ugle-Hagan’s draft year – could the Swans offer him a mega deal to bring him across? He and Bailey Smith are names to watch for the Dogs ahead of next year’s trade period.

The Grand Final start time stays put

Andrew Dillon says he likes the tradition of the 2:30pm AEST start time of the Grand Final, so it would be a big call to shift it in his opening year as the CEO. It does seem like a shift is inevitable and maybe that comes in the first year of the new broadcast deal in 2025. For 2024, at least, the decider should remain in its current slot.

Any issues with the score review system will be a thing of the past

Just kidding.