Why Ange Postecoglou getting Tottenham sack might be best

Whether it was a defiant stance, or words for the epitaph of Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs tenure, the Australian’s message to reporters before the Europa League final was one aimed at shifting the narrative.

While many have been eager to paint Tottenham’s Bilbao showdown with Manchester United as do-or-die for his hopes of remaining employed, Postecoglou has pushed his alternate view with increasing force.

“My future is assured,” Postecoglou said, unmoved by the latest round of questioning about being sacked. “I wouldn’t be the first person who changes jobs.

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“We all change jobs. I’m sure you’ve had more than one job. My future is assured. I’ve got a beautiful family, I’ve got a great life.

“I’ll keep on winning trophies until I finish, wherever that is. Don’t worry about my future mate.”

History tells us that — as is so often the case — Postecoglou is probably right.

A look at Spurs’ last four permanent managers reveals a football reality where being sacked as the club’s boss is arguably better than being retained.

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After failing to win a trophy in his five-year stay, Mauricio Pochettino has since managed heavyweights Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea, winning multiple trophies with the former.

Now, he holds a lucrative position as the coach of the United States men’s team. He reportedly earns almost A$10m a year, making him the nation’s highest-ever paid coach.

Pochettino was followed by Jose Mourinho who, despite failure at Spurs, achieved success at Roma immediately after by winning the 2021-22 Europa Conference League. It was the storeyed club’s first continental trophy since 1961.

Fellow Portuguese Nuno Espírito Santo’s Spurs tenure lasted just four months in 2021.

Despite the ugly nature of his departure, he, too, has had the last laugh. This season, his Nottingham Forest side stands a realistic chance of qualifying for European football heading into the final match.

Meanwhile, the manager Postecoglou eventually replaced, Antonio Conte, is on the brink of lifting the Serie A title with Napoli.

As noted by Sam Wallace in The Telegraph, “history tells us, quite clearly, that being the former Spurs manager can be preferable to actually being the Spurs manager.”

He added: “Naturally, as Ange Postecoglou heads towards his Europa League final reckoning, there is a tendency to believe that the best outcome for him is to effect a great turnaround. That the heavily trailed post-season parting of club and manager is rethought … a dramatic buzzer-beater that changes history.

“Although for Postecoglou, the alternative is quite seductive too.”

Granted, Conte and Mourinho had more managerial money-in-the-bank through their deeds prior to arriving at Spurs.

But Postecoglou’s own record wants for very little: He won the A-League with Brisbane Roar, the Asian Cup with the Socceroos, J-League with Yokohama F.Marinos, and five trophies with Celtic.

There is a strong argument that, should he be given the flick by Spurs, he would remain a far more credentialed coach upon exit than Pochettino and Nuno were.

It’s also worth noting the incredibly anomalous nature of Spurs’ doomed league campaign that has pushed Postecoglou to the exit in the first place.

While Spurs sit just one position above the relegation zone, and have lost nearly twice as many games as they have won, the team somehow has a positive goal difference.

For context, Wolves and West Ham have 15 and 18-goal deficits respectively, despite sitting multiple places higher in the table. Not until Bournemouth in 11th does another club have a positive goal difference.

Before Spurs lost 2-0 on the weekend to sixth-placed Aston Villa, the two clubs’ goal differences were only separated by three.

While losing 21 games is simply unacceptable in any situation for a club with Spurs’ resources, the scale of failure has been made to look far worse by football’s fickle nature, and the gargantuan injury toll Postecoglou has contended with.

Spurs’ injury list for the entirety of the season has been on a biblical scale, while Postecoglou was offered only modest financial support in the January transfer market to cover his losses.

Circumstance has seen Postecoglou lead Spurs more hogtied than handcuffed, and yet he could still clinch Spurs’ first trophy in 17 years, and its first European title in more than 40.

“Ange will go down in history if he can win it,” former Spurs captain Michael Dawson told Gambling.com. “Because winning trophies, that is history.

“We still talk about 2008 and Juande Ramos, who got sacked eight months after we won (the 2008 League Cup) in February.

“He has put all his eggs in one basket and I’ve got absolutely no problem with that.”

It’s hard to imagine how Postecoglou’s stocks are seriously damaged by any sacking in this scenario.

Perhaps the key reason for the polarity of Postecoglou’s domestic and European campaigns has been his ability to adopt a level of pragmatism in the latter.

While there has been a thirst for entertaining, attacking football on the home front, the higher-stakes of a European knockout competition has increasingly demanded a more measured, results-based approach, which Postecoglou has delivered.

Postecoglou may have shown a reluctance to depart from his trademark, high-risk style on a weekly basis in the Premier League on philosophical grounds. But eventually, a more pragmatic string to Postecoglou’s bow has emerged, which will only increase his stocks among suitors if — or when — the Spurs guillotine drops.

There is yet another consideration here when discussing what would make a Postecoglou sacking unlike others — that is the sour environment off the pitch, overseen by controversial chairman Daniel Levy.

Levy has a long history of setting managers up for failure by creating unrealistic expectations in even more unrealistic time frames, while simultaneously tightening the club’s purse strings and/or selling star players.

His managers invariably become the scapegoat once Spurs’ results head south — the wasteland behind him speaks for itself.

As such, there’s a widespread sympathy for whoever feels Levy’s wrath. As Wallace wrote, “being martyred” by him “has its benefits at a club where successive incumbents, and indeed players themselves, have argued that the point of Spurs is something other than winning.”

“What is that? That Levy gets to run the club his way, and all else takes its place accordingly,” he adds.

It’s therefore little surprise that Postecoglou speaks as a manager who seemingly already knows his fate, but is also undaunted by what comes next.

On the eve of the final, Postecoglou spoke about his history of always leaving clubs on a high-note — which would be an odd point to stress for someone who is remaining in their job.

“I’ve been in this situation before, where the big game was the last game I managed,” he said.

“It’s not unusual territory for me and I’ve always navigated that pretty well because for me nothing it more important than my responsibility to this football club and its fans tomorrow …

“I qualified for a World Cup, I left, win the treble with Celtic, I left, won at Brisbane, I left so … it’s actually more common than you think.”

Indeed, the whispers are growing louder and louder that the 59-year-old will leave Spurs regardless of whether he wins the Europa League on Thursday or not.

It’s why David Hytner of The Guardian writes that Postecoglou’s pre-match press conferences have offered a large element of “legacy protection” from the Australian as he readies for what’s next.

“What Postecoglou has wanted to do is remind people of the situation that he inherited at Spurs,” Hytner wrote. “Morale was low after Antonio Conte’s scorching of the earth. The team had finished eighth. There was no European football for the first time since 2009-10. Harry Kane was about to be sold.

“Postecoglou was charged with changing the style of play, moving away from the counterpunching of José Mourinho, Nuno Espírito Santo and Conte. The demand was for greater entertainment. And he was charged with overseeing a squad overhaul which had a focus on younger players with potential.

“Spurs have got rid of a lot of experienced players and if none of those moved on have been greatly mourned – apart from Kane – the collective loss of nous has been felt this season.

“The taking of a new direction was never going to be straightforward and that is before all of the additional elements are factored in, mainly the climate outside the first-team bubble.”

Meanwhile, Arsenal legend Martin Keown said that if nothing else, Postecoglou could at least leave with the ultimate mic-drop moment for his naysayers.

“When he goes, he’s probably going to be able to say, ‘I’ve won a trophy in my second season, off you go,’” Keown said on Talksport.

“He might want to put two fingers up to his own fans, to the critics.”