A rare climate milestone arrives as a four-year deadline looms

An increase in the number of people driving electric vehicles and turning to solar and wind power, partly due to the war in Iran, is expected to marginally decrease global carbon emissions this year.

But it’s still not enough to prevent the world from reaching the dreaded 1.5C threshold and its associated dangerous impacts from climate change, scientists warn.

A new report by the Global Carbon Project projects 38.2 billion tonnes of fossil carbon emissions this year — about a 0.4 per cent decrease.

That’s likely in part because of the oil shock caused by the Iran war, with more people shifting to renewables — leading to a 1.9 per cent drop in emissions from oil alone.

The paper says the uptake is not fast enough to achieve a durable decline in emissions — at current levels, there are less than four years left before the planet starts warming to 1.5C.

“A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,” said Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter, who led the study.

What does the report say?

The report found that power from solar and wind, and electric cars, now offset about two-thirds of emissions from the growing demand for energy.

That’s mostly thanks to China — which is responsible for 32 per cent of global emissions — and its deployment of clean technologies and carbon sinks through reforestation. Half of the global emissions avoided due to renewable energy and electric vehicles are in China.

Emissions from Australia were down 1.2 per cent in 2025, while New Zealand emissions dropped 1 per cent.

But scientists warn that the uptake of renewables needs to be much faster, since the biggest contributors to global warming are carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels like gas for home heating, coal for power stations, and petrol-burning cars.

The remaining carbon “budget” to limit warming to 1.45C is now estimated at just 150 billion tonnes, effectively exhausted. The world already hit 1.37C of warming due to human activities last year, so there’s little room left.

“Clean technologies are making a real difference in reducing global emissions,” climate scientist Corinne Le Quéré said.

“Solar and wind power and electric vehicles are expanding rapidly, led by China. Countries on every continent are decreasing their emissions while growing their economies. A further acceleration could turn the tide on global emissions within a few years.”

How do other countries compare?

More countries are reducing their emissions at the same time as growing their economies — 59 countries emitted less in 2025 than before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019. This includes New Zealand.

Australia is still among the highest per capita emitters in the world — about three times more than the United Kingdom — but it’s slowly declining.

• China is set to experience a 0.9 per cent drop in emissions. While its coal emissions rose slightly (0.3 per cent), electricity generation from renewables is growing strongly.
• Emissions in the United States are projected to decrease by 1.3 per cent, mainly due to a decrease in coal emissions.
• India’s emissions are projected to increase by 4.4 per cent.
• European Union emissions are projected to decrease by 1.5 per cent.

What can be done?

Scientists say that reducing fossil fuel projects, accelerating the uptake of renewables, and reforestation initiatives are among the main actions that can be taken to reduce the impact of climate change.

Mona Mashhadi Rajabi, from the University of Technology Sydney, says the energy transition must happen globally, not just within individual countries, pointing to countries like India, which increased their emissions due to increased coal use.

South Korea, India, Thailand and other Asian nations have also increased their reliance on coal or taken steps to boost coal-fired power generation.

But this presents an opportunity for Australia, with its capacity to generate renewable energy, to export its projects and technologies to the region, Rajabi said.

So what will happen now?

Right now, officials from nearly 200 countries are gathering in Türkiye for two weeks of climate talks for COP31. The host nation wants to help boost the electrification of the global economy from a fifth of the world to a third.

South Pacific island nations most vulnerable to rising sea levels are pushing for a clearer global roadmap away from fossil fuels — a perennially controversial topic at climate summits.

But that’s not on the agenda at this year’s summit.

Many oil- and gas-producing nations, including Saudi Arabia, argue that fossil fuels can still form a substantial part of the global energy mix in a climate-friendly world, provided they are paired with technologies that reduce or capture emissions.

There’s still a long way to go for a meaningful global consensus on fossil fuels.

— With additional reporting by the Reuters news agency.

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