What it will take to break New Zealand’s election deadlock

New Zealand’s election was an exceptionally tight contest, with no clear winner emerging on Saturday night.

The two major parties — National and Labour — received 29.21 and 29.36 per cent of the vote, respectively, according to preliminary results.

It’s the country’s closest electoral result in years, but there are still more votes to be counted.

At present, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National Party has secured the most seats, with 42, but Labour leader Chris Hipkins has refused to concede.

So what happens next?

Where do the results stand?

Under preliminary results, the right-wing bloc that includes National, ACT New Zealand and New Zealand First holds a thin majority of 67 seats in the 131-seat parliament, which changes in size due to how seat allocations are calculated.

The left-wing bloc, which includes Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori (Māori Party), has 57 seats. Despite receiving slightly more votes than National, Labour secured only 36 seats because they won fewer local races.

Amid a cost of living crisis and a weak economy, voters delivered a rebuke of National and Labour, throwing more support behind minor parties.

On the right, ACT New Zealand won 13 seats and New Zealand First 12. On the left, the Greens won 16 seats, and Te Pāti Māori secured five.

The minor parties will negotiate more concessions from the weakened major parties hoping to form government.

Several of National’s most senior members will exit politics, including the ministers of finance and defence, the speaker of parliament, and the attorney-general.

What happens now?

While the right-wing bloc has a slight majority, the results could change. Nearly 400,000 special votes — which include overseas ballots — are yet to be counted.

Those ballots have historically granted an additional seat or two to left-wing parties, which could snatch the current razor-thin majority from the right.

Such an outcome would likely leave the left struggling to form a majority too.

The special vote count is expected to take three weeks, and New Zealand’s electoral commission won’t announce the official result until 27 November.

Parties will then know how many seats they need to form a government and will start negotiating either a coalition or looser alliances known as confidence and supply agreements.

New centrist party Opportunity, led by 38-year-old political debutante Qiulae Wong, could become kingmaker, after picking up seven seats.

Wong is unaligned with either bloc and said she could work with either side to form a government.

If a government can’t be formed, New Zealand could face a fresh vote.

What have the leaders said?

Speaking to reporters on Sunday, Luxon blamed public dissatisfaction on global shocks that have buffeted New Zealand’s trade-based economy, noting that other incumbent governments worldwide have faced voter anger over living costs.

“I think everyone’s over politics so let’s all have a bit of a break for the next three weeks,” he said. He will lead a caretaker government until an outcome is reached.

Hipkins, who replaced Jacinda Ardern as prime minister in January 2023, lost the October 2023 election — largely due to discontent over the same economic issues.

Speaking on Saturday night, he declined to concede.

“As things stand tonight, it’s clear we’re not going to know the exact shape of the next government for a little while longer yet,” he said.

“When the final result is known, I’ll have quite a bit more to say.”

Speaking to supporters in Auckland on Saturday night, Wong was elated.

“You guys have voted for unity over division. You have voted to change New Zealand politics for good. I cannot express how grateful I am to all of you who have put your faith in us tonight,” she said.

— With additional reporting by the Associated Press.

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