One Nation would become federal opposition if election held today, poll predicts
Angus Taylor has urged the party faithful to mobilise as polling indicates that the Liberals are at risk of nearly being wiped out by One Nation.
RedBridge Group and Accent Research polling shows One Nation would become the opposition if a federal election was held today, depleting the Liberals and completely wiping out the National Party.
The poll of more than 6,000 voters showed Pauline Hanson’s party could win as many as 59 seats, which would include flipping many Labor-held electorates.
But One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce said it was “hubristic and way, way, way ahead of ourselves” to assume where the party would be at the next election.
“What’s before us is an incredible responsibility placed on us by the Australian people,” he told ABC News.
“We’ll rise to the responsibility, but we’re not going to get carried away with what may or may not be down the track.”
One Nation predicted to win 53 seats
The poll is a snapshot of voter intentions now, rather than a prediction of the next election result.
The report produces a low-to-high estimate of how many seats each party could win.
It estimates One Nation would win between 46 and 59 seats, with a median of 53.
If reflected at the next federal election, it would be a staggering result for a party that has never won a lower house seat at a general election.
It holds two: one from Barnaby Joyce’s defection and the second from David Farley’s recent win at the Farrer by-election.
The voter surveys covered the period during which the Farrer by-election was held. (AAP: Bianca de Marchi)
Labor is estimated to win between 70 and 82 seats, with a median of 76, which would be a sizeable drop from its current 94.
The Coalition is projected to be reduced to between seven and 21 seats.
The median prediction has the Liberals winning 12 and the National Party none.
Accent Research political scientist Shaun Ratcliff said if Australians voted like this at a federal election, it would wipe out the two-party system.
“It’s intense fragmentation,” he said.
“We see the Labor Party probably winning a majority, but only just, but with a real significant chance of a minority Labor government.”
The voter surveys were conducted between 29 April and 14 May, and therefore include the Farrer by-election, but only a brief period of the budget wash-up.
‘Never been a better time’ to recruit, Taylor says
Attempting to energise a Liberal Party conference in Victoria ahead of the November state election, Mr Taylor said the party must make “every effort” to “rid” the nation and state of “rotten” Labor governments.
“If the vote sprays, Labor stays,” he told the crowd.
“I have never seen a better time in my political career to recruit supporters and members to the Liberal Party.
“Let’s get them putting corflutes up, let’s get them on the booths.”
Angus Taylor says every effort must be made to get rid of Labor governments. (ABC News)
Almost simultaneously, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese addressed the Labor Party conference in Victoria, where he criticised Mr Taylor’s recent budget reply speech, in which he outlined a plan to stop migrants from being able to receive welfare payments.
“[He] is going around talking about the difference between ‘migrants’ and ‘Australians’ as if someone cannot be both,” Mr Albanese said.
“I have never heard a serious mainstream political leader use that sort of language.”
More work to do on budget impacts: Backbencher
Mr Albanese also defended his controversial changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax (CGT) discount, which the opposition has labelled a “war” on aspiration.
“The system isn’t working,” Mr Albanese said.
“It’s the right thing to do, not the easy thing.”
Despite the PM showing little appetite to alter his proposed CGT arrangements, Labor backbencher Jerome Laxale said “more work needs to be done on the application of this element of the budget on small businesses and start-ups”.
“Consultation is ongoing and I welcome that,” the former small business operator said.
Responding to the budget in his speech to the Liberal function on Saturday, Mr Taylor reiterated that a future Coalition government would repeal Labor’s changes, should they pass parliament.
“The justifiable public backlash to this budget is of a magnitude unlike anything I have seen in recent years,” Mr Taylor said.
The ABC has confirmed that the Coalition also wants a public inquiry into the proposal and is threatening to block the government’s NDIS bill in order to compel Labor to commit to one.
